Five talking points ahead of the 2024 Hungarian GP

Convergence of performance at the top

One hot topic right now is, what’s happened to Red Bull? But perhaps that’s the wrong question. Under F1’s current regulations, there’s a sliding scale on wind tunnel development time, with the most successful teams receiving less. That’s probably starting to bite for a team that has been a dominant force for more than two years. Plus, after nailing these modern ground-effect regulations so completely in 2022 and 2023, there is bound to be a case of diminishing returns as other teams catch up on how to make this ruleset work. So, perhaps it’s not about what’s happened to Red Bull, but rather what’s happening at Mercedes and McLaren that really counts. Coming from a lower point of performance, both have succeeded in unlocking what they need to compete, Mercedes most notably following a recent series of technical upgrades.

Has Red Bull been unsettled by the tensions at the top of the company and between Christian Horner and Jos Verstappen, and by Adrian Newey’s impending departure? Almost certainly. But such storms are not what’s making the edgy RB20 a little harder for Max Verstappen to consistently find his set-up sweet spot. And let’s not forget, Verstappen has still won seven of the first 12 races this season. This team still sets the benchmark. But it’s certainly the case that the three-time champion will now have a fight on his hands to keep that win tally ticking over at the rate he’s become used to.

Hamilton vs Russell: a delicate rivalry

On the back of his historic ninth Silverstone win, Lewis Hamilton will plan to ride on a new wave of positive energy and keep that momentum going in these next two races. The British GP victory was huge for him, especially in the way that he earnt it. It didn’t fall to him in the way George Russell’s Austrian GP victory did. Yes, Russell once again outqualified him to take pole position at Silverstone, but Hamilton tracked him every step of the way in those early laps, their pace edging them clear of Verstappen. Then, in the changeable conditions Hamilton gained the upper hand, made the right call on the final tyre change as the track dried and impressively kept a charging Verstappen at bay. A proper win, in other words.

In contrast, Russell’s fading hopes were then dashed by a desperately unlucky technical failure to leave him trailing into the garage. A week after his inherited Austrian GP win following the Lando Norris/Verstappen collision – what a comedown.

It all leaves an intriguing scenario at Mercedes. Hamilton will want to push on and leave the team on an upward trajectory before carrying that momentum to Ferrari for 2025 – while Russell must show the resilience to bounce back and assert himself consistently as a worthy team leader now and beyond Hamilton’s departure. On current evidence, he remains a work in progress as a driver around whom a team can build its attack.

Now that Mercedes is actually back in the hunt, the stakes are raised for both drivers. Friction when such ambitions collide might well prove inevitable.

Norris impatient to land more wins

Lando Norris, not for the first time this year, was properly glum in the aftermath of Silverstone because this was another race that slipped away from him. Collective poor choices from both driver and team lost Norris the lead, left him powerless to defend from Verstappen in the closing stages and a third-place finish left a sour taste.

McLaren has all the ingredients now to regularly beat Red Bull and win more races through 2024 – including a strong driver in the other car. Oscar Piastri could also have won the British GP, again with better McLaren strategy. But remember, this is a team that is coming back from a long slump. That means it needs to learn to win again, because it’s out of practice, especially in contrast to the match-fit Red Bull.

Mistakes in the heat of battle happen, especially in that context of team progression from a lowly starting point – although Norris is also right to be impatient and tired of his and the team’s marginal slips. Executing a couple of perfect races in Hungary and Belgium, maximising whatever McLaren has to give, is just what Norris, Piastri, and the whole team needs to put the Silverstone disappointment behind them.

Pressure mounts on Perez

He scored four podiums in the first five races, but that must feel like an age ago for Sergio Pérez. ‘Checo’s’ season has since spiralled into an alarming paucity of points, he’s on a terrible run, and it’s no great surprise that the jungle drums are rumbling to suggest Red Bull could be looking to make a change during the summer break.

Yes, the Mexican has a deal already agreed for next year, but there are said to be performance-related break clauses – and anyway, no one is ever safe at Red Bull (whatever a piece of paper says) if they fail to live up to Helmut Marko’s expectations.

The trouble is, Pérez’s points could well prove crucial to the team this year, given the rising threat from others. Red Bull sits 71 points ahead of currently out of form Ferrari, and only 78 ahead of fast-closing McLaren. That’s still a decent cushion, but if Norris and Piastri continue to score heavily into the autumn and only Verstappen is making a meaningful contribution to Red Bull’s tally, we might – just might – have a constructors’ title battle on our hands. It’s a long-shot, but less so than the scenario for a drivers’ championship battle. On that score, Verstappen holds a commanding 84-point lead over Norris and it takes quite a vivid imagination to see that one slip.

Ferrari needs a reaction

Like Checo’s early-season form, Charles Leclerc’s Monaco GP win, just four races before Silverstone, is another increasingly distant memory. From Red Bull’s most likely challenger, Ferrari suddenly finds itself as the fourth-best team, even if it’s still clinging on to second in the points for now. Leclerc cut a desperate figure at Silverstone after an early switch to intermediate tyres backfired, while Carlos Sainz Jr. put in a decent drive in the other Ferrari, but was never in contention for the podium, never mind the win.

It appears Ferrari has headed down a development cul-de-sac with an upgrade introduced for the Spanish GP. Reversing back out and rediscovering some of its lost momentum will be crucial over these next two back-to-back races to send the Maranello squad into the summer break with hopes of an autumn revival. To end this week on a positive note, if it succeeds, a brewing three-team battle for each race win could suddenly become a tasty four-way.

From things being entirely predictable week in, week out as Verstappen scored win after win, F1 has switched in the space of a few races into a state of juicy uncertainty. It bodes well for a great second half of 2024 – and perhaps a stellar 2025.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.