My predictions for F1 in 2023 | Thank Frankel it’s Friday

And so long as it’s not just stickers on bodywork, as per Red Bull’s 2020 sponsorship deal with Aston Martin, Ford being back in F1 is obviously a very good thing. If it is also joined by Audi and, through Cadillac branding, General Motors, that’s better still. All that’s at least three seasons away, but we are also less than three weeks away from the one and only F1 pre-season test, and just four from the first grand prix of the season.

So what kind of season will it be? And the answer is, of course, that nobody knows. But that rarely deters armchair enthusiasts with an audience from making predictions, some, or most likely, all of which will contrive to make him look like the ill-informed twit he really is by the end of the year. I say ‘he’ only because your twit de jour right now is me. So what follows is absolutely, categorically and precisely what will happen in Formula 1 in 2023. Until it doesn’t.

First, it will be a far closer season than 2022, and hallelujah for that. Red Bull won’t drop the ball, but Mercedes and Ferrari will pick it up and run at their common foe much harder and faster than last year. These two are interesting cases: last year Mercedes was a great team with a rubbish car, Ferrari precisely the reverse. Mercedes will have learned from its mistakes and Ferrari has a new man in charge. I expect both to have made huge progress. Which will do better? By the end of the year I expect Mercedes to be ahead of Ferrari, only because no one develops a car over a season like Mercedes. I remind you that it came to the grid last year with, by its own supersonic standards, an absolute joke of a car, yet it still won a race before the end of term. Ferrari? Ferrari tends to be the team that shows most promise in testing, then goes on to squander it during the season. It simply has to be at its very best all year to have a hope of clinging onto Mercedes.

But will either of them have the legs of the Red Bull? I hope so, because we can all do without Max romping away again. It will be closer, much closer, but Max will retain his title, and do so with at least a race in hand. There will be no repeat of Abu Dhabi 2021.

Of the driver pairings, it’s obvious that Checo Perez will continue to be Max’s wingman, but the team will be keen for him to be more consistent to provide its superstar with the support it needs. It’s also clear – at least to me – that Sainz will be increasingly cast in a supporting role at Ferrari. He’s good, very good, but he’s not Charles, and Ferrari will want to back one man to bring home the goods. But what about Lewis and George? I’m in the minority of people who actually think George outdrove Lewis in 2022. Yes Lewis outqualified George 12-10 last year, and each beat the other eleven times in the races. But George actually won a race, finished fourth in the championship to Lewis’ sixth, beat him 3-0 in the sprint races, had a higher qualifying position on average, the higher finishing position and more fastest laps too. George will now be fully integrated into a team that knows its future lies with him, not Lewis. And time is always on the side of the man at the start of his career and against the man at the end.

Elsewhere, Alpine made a complete Horlicks of its driver negotiations, and ended up losing Alonso and gaining Gasly. Ocon remains under-rated but no-one would surely argue the team was anything other than weakened as a result. McLaren will be dribbling at the possibility of becoming best of the rest and with the superb Lando Norris and the shooting star that is Oscar Piastri.

At Alfa Romeo it will be interesting to see if Zhou Guanyu can mount a season long challenge to Valtteri Bottas, but as the latter is more good than great by F1 standards it’s hard to see this pairing dragging a car higher than it deserves on the grid. By contrast I see potential in the Yuki Tsunoda/Nyck de Vries pairing at Alpha Tauri. I think the former will respond well to the challenge of his new role as team leader and has been in F1 long enough not to be scared by the challenge. De Vries is clearly a class contender, albeit with a lot to learn in his rookie year.

Will Alex Albon be able to drag Williams off the back of the grid with former Mercedes strategy director James Vowles stepping into the team principal role? I rate Albon far more than most but it will be a hard season, and while stellar in F2, his new American teammate Logan Sergeant might find it tough as a rookie coming into what may well remain a back-of-the-grid team.

Haas? Kevin Magnussen proved himself in spectacular style last year, so no one will doubt he’s earned his place on merit. But Nico Hulkenberg returning after three years out is clearly a gamble. That said he’s likely to bring more to the party than Mick Schumacher was able.

And finally Aston Martin, where one multiple world champion – Fernando Alonso – replaces another – Sebastian Vettel. He’s seen as a prized catch for the team, but I think Lance Stroll is better than the credit he gets and while I expect Fernando to outperform him over a season, the gap will be less than expected.

So that’s what I’m predicting will happen. But what will actually happen? Just like you, I really haven’t a clue.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.