5 predictions for the 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix

That’s not to say the results of this weekend will confirm the outcome of the championship come December, because we’re about to embark on the longest ever F1 season. A full 24-race calendar offers plenty of time for the teams to turn fortunes around. You only have to look at McLaren’s performance in 2023 to see how performance can change over the course of the season.

There’s plenty to look forward to, even if we do end up saving by another Red Bull/Verstappen onslaught. Lewis Hamilton is preparing for his final season in Mercedes colours before he departs for Ferrari in 2025. That means the rest of the grid will be busying themselves will showcasing to Toto Wolff why they should be the one to replace the seven-time champion.

For now at least, it’s all to play for in F1, so it’s time for a bit of good old speculation. It’s that time again to make our predictions for the 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix.

1. Charles Leclerc will be fastest in FP1 for the Bahrain Grand Prix

In many ways the lottery of pre-season testing spills over into the first practice session of the season, often the teams use it as a chance to finalise any testing runs they hadn’t managed to complete during those first three days of running. Expect to see aero rakes, flow-vis and plenty of set-up changes in the early going, but equally don’t expect to see anything particularly informative on the timing screens.

That said, Verstappen’s dominance was such in 2023 that he still ended up top of the pile in FP1 more often than not. For the sake of variety in our predictions, and to double down on the surprise that we had in Bahrain last time out when Fernando Alonso took the first P1 of the season, we’re going to say that Charles Leclerc, in a Ferrari that looks to have decent pace, will come out on top on Thursday morning.

2. Charles Leclerc will be on pole position for the Bahrain Grand Prix

It’s ominous when the majority of the F1 paddock has already called the result of the season before a wheel has even turned in anger. That was certainly the feeling from many of the drivers in the wake of testing. Fernando Alonso was perhaps most stark in his assessment of what we can expect over the next 24 races. In his view, Max Verstappen is going to have an even easier time than last year, and that’s not what any of us, surely even the most devout of Verstappen fans, wanted to hear.

That being said, lap times seen throughout testing seem to suggest that Ferrari will run Red Bull close over the course of a single lap, and you have to say there is one driver in particular who has often dazzled when it comes down to outright pace. Charles Leclerc has scored 23 pole positions in his F1 career to date, and has put together some truly scintillating laps in the face of a hugely dominant Red Bull. While Ferrari’s race pace looks to be less impressive, unless Red Bull has been hiding something, wouldn’t that be a shock, we won’t be surprised if Leclerc lines up at the front for the Bahrain Grand Prix.

3. Max Verstappen will win the Bahrain Grand Prix

Ok, enough of the dreaming, only a fool would suggest anyone other than Max Verstappen is going to win this race. The team at Red Bull has done what it has done so often in recent seasons and stunned the rest of the grid into absolute silence. Not content to sit calmly and evolve the dominant RB19, Adrian Newey has led a complete revolution for the RB20 which features an entirely new aerodynamic concept that frighteningly looks even better.

Verstappen’s race runs in testing were far quicker than anyone else’s when adjusted for tyre differences, and if that remains the case through the first stint of the grand prix he could be a pitstop clear within 20 laps. Let’s hope not, but prepare yourselves all the same.

4. Lewis Hamilton will finish on the podium in Bahrain

The Mercedes camp has been putting out some pretty confident noises in the build up to the new season. Even in the wake of the earth-shattering announcement that Lewis Hamilton will leave the team at the end of the year to join Ferrari, the focus to get back to winning ways has appeared unbroken. Hamilton himself has said that this car is far better than anything he drove last season, and that car ended up second in the constructors’ championship.

It's also interesting that, while many other teams have been bemoaning the apparent speed of the Red Bull, Mercedes has kept its own focus purely internal. Does that signal there are good things cooking in Brackley? It’s difficult to know for sure, but with McLaren and Aston Martin appearing to have lost their edge from last season, the final position on the podium looks set to be fought for between Mercedes and Ferrari. Hamilton will want to finish his time at Mercedes on a high, so we’re willing to bet he’ll be the best of the rest in Bahrain.

5. Alpine will fail to score in Bahrain

The situation at Alpine doesn’t appear to be improving. In the wake of yet more managerial reshuffles last year, the team struggled through another underwhelming three days of testing. With no apparent pace to speak of, despite a pair of drivers that are clearly extremely talented, both of whom proven race winners, it seems almost unthinkable that the team could come away from any grand prix empty handed. That looks concerningly likely to happen in Bahrain.

The midfield scrap is extremely tight, but McLaren, Aston Martin and RB look to have the edge over the likes of Alpine, Sauber and Williams. We expect it to be close, but ultimately Alpine will fall short of the top ten.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.