7 talking points ahead of the United States Grand Prix

Norris still has a shot

The gap is down to 52 points. That’s the equivalent of two wins and a pair of fastest laps – so still a relative chasm with only half a dozen races left. It means Lando Norris still needs a big hand from his title rival Verstappen if he is to pull off what would be F1’s biggest points-swing comeback to become the 2024 world champion. One failure to score for Verstappen would really spark excitement – but only if Norris maximises his own results in a McLaren that is now the fastest car on the grid.

The thing is, Verstappen has only logged two DNFs since the start of 2022 and only one this term, in Australia. Yes, the wins have dried up since Red Bull’s striking fall from grace. The last one was in Spain back in June. But Verstappen has kept his score ticking over even when podiums have been out of reach.

So, a fourth consecutive title is likely. And yet… given the heaps of F1 drama we’ve relished since mid-summer, we can’t help but feel there might yet be another twist in this tale before its done. Norris will be refreshed after the break and fully pumped to drive like the champion he wishes to be. There’s still a chance, especially if he can take the initiative and close that gap this coming weekend.

Verstappen: keep calm and carry on

Red Bull has fallen 41 points behind McLaren and there’s now an assumption the Woking team is on the verge of claiming its first constructors’ crown since 1998. Who’d have predicted that back in the spring when Verstappen still looked unstoppable? As we’ve said, the Dutchman knows that a measured, calm approach will likely still deliver him a fourth crown. But unless his team has rediscovered some of his old form for these six races, it might well feel a little anti-climactic when – if – he gets over the line.

The tension that still festers within the management hierarchy, mainly between Christian Horner and Helmut Marko, with Jos Verstappen stoking the tension, only adds to the sense of an empire beginning to crumble. Adrian Newey’s departure to Aston Martin is the headline loss, but there have been others: sporting director Jonathan Wheatley, who is on his way to be team principal at Sauber/Audi, strategy head Will Courtenay is another who will leave, for McLaren.

How long before Verstappen moves on, too? Next year is the end of the current rules cycle – and will also conclude Red Bull’s partnership with Honda before its own powertrain is introduced in 2026 with backing from Ford. That’s a huge moment for the team.

But by then will Verstappen have found a new home at Mercedes, or perhaps Aston Martin? Or might he even walk away from F1 completely? He’s a single-minded individual who has consistently proclaimed he doesn’t want or need to stick around F1 unless he’s enjoying it. Verstappen’s unpredictable future is probably the biggest question mark hanging over grand prix racing right now – whatever happens in the next seven weeks.

Hamilton’s long goodbye to Mercedes

The countdown is nearly done before Lewis Hamilton finally departs from Mercedes, the manufacturer that has powered him all the way through his F1 career from the very beginning in 2007. How he and the team have managed the awkwardness this year of his impending switch to Ferrari is a credit to all involved. I must admit, when Hamilton’s sensational news was announced pre-season I was sceptical that he’d remain in his seat until the very end of this season.

But the team’s upturn in form, even if it has been uneven of late, allowed the seven-time champion to win again, most memorably and brilliantly at Silverstone. One of F1’s greatest driver-team partnerships can now wind down in style and dignity. And what price Hamilton adding a 106^th victory to his career tally before they’re done? One thing’s for sure: he’ll push with every fibre all the way to the final lap in Abu Dhabi.

Ferrari needs momentum for 2025

The high early potential in Singapore that turned into under-performing disappointment seems typical of where Ferrari finds itself right now. The season hasn’t been a failure for Maranello, given Charles Leclerc’s special victories in Monaco and Monza. But it has been the same old story: inconsistently strong, but overall underwhelming.

The team is 34 points behind Red Bull in the constructors’ standings, so second behind McLaren is still within reach. But the main target must surely be to build a sense of momentum that the team can carry over into 2025 when Hamilton arrives to form a potent partnership with Leclerc only rivalled by that between Norris and Oscar Piastri. As for Carlos Sainz Jr., he will be as determined as the man who will be replacing him, to go out from his current team on a high before his switch to Williams. Especially as these races are likely to be his last in a potentially race-winning car for quite some time.

Lawson’s big audition

Kiwi Liam Lawson returns to the F1 grid this weekend following his substitution for Daniel Ricciardo at the second Red Bull team. He scored points in Singapore last year during his impressive five-race stint in place of an injured Ricciardo, and nothing less will do this time around. First, the RB team is in a scrap with Haas for sixth in the constructors’ championship, lying just three points ahead at this stage. Second, these six races are essentially an audition for Lawson to claim this seat on a permanent basis for next year.

But who knows? If it really goes well for him, he might even become a contender to replace Sergio Pérez beside Verstappen in the A-team in 2025. This month he drove for Red Bull, logging 116 laps at Mugello as Pirelli tested its 2025 tyre compounds. The 22-year-old will know this is it: the opportunity of a lifetime.

Haas boosted by Toyota tie-up

Big news ahead of the US GP: Toyota is back in F1. Well, not completely. The Japanese giant was at pains to dampen its return, but its newly announced tie-up with the American Haas team does represent a limited comeback of sorts. Toyota Gazoo Racing is an ‘official technical partner’ in a deal that is designed for mutual benefit, offering a boost of support to the race team and a chance for the manufacturer’s racing arm to gain knowledge and inspiration from a limited involvement in F1.

For now that’s enough for Toyota – although that won’t quell hopes it might lead to a great commitment to motor sport’s top tier further down the line.

Williams vs Alpine

Finally, two teams with illustrious pasts and plenty of history as rivals find themselves thrown together once again as 2024 builds to its season climax. Williams heads Alpine by just three points in the squabble to be the eighth-best team in F1. That the duel is playing out so low down the order is wince-inducing for both – but a tad more for Alpine, which has performed abysmally for a manufacturer team.

Now the long-expected move is confirmed: Alpine will abandon Renault’s long-running engine programme based at Viry-Châtillon in favour of Mercedes customer power in 2026. That’s the biggest and most damning indictment of how low the Enstone-based French team has fallen. As for this year and its immediate priorities, Alpine can only strive to take what little it can get.

Images courtesy of Motorsport Images.